With Covid-Crisis Recession Ending Now, What's Ahead?

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During the Coronavirus epidemic, Advisors4Advisors is publishing free updates between CE classes. 
Fritz Meyer Economic Update

Fritz hits the latest economic fundamentals in this 10-minute fiancial economic commentary.  As  an independent economist, Fritz Meyer has no financial product to sell. Some highlights of what he saying now:

-- The worst of the vrius crisis has passed; 2Q20 GDP plunged at an annualized rate of -32.9%. Actual GDP came in almost exactly as expected by the consensus estimate of the latest WSJ survey of economists. 

-- Real DPI per capita hit a record all-time high due to CARES Act government transfers. For context, he shows component of personal income and shows that wages are down, small business income is down, but goverment transfers up a stunning 106% year-over-year.  

-- PCED from 1.5% has collapsed in the Covid crisis, nowhere near the Fed’s target of 2%, and the Fed does not expect to worry about it heading for the next three years.  

-- We just lived through a decade of 1.5% inflation (CAGR) and we live in a low inflation world.     

-- Expect another round of transfers from the government in a folowup to CARES Act.

A Shift In The Stock Market Valuation Paradigm
(Tuesday, July 28, 2020) The new LEI numbers, a paradigm shift in stock valuation metrics, and behavioral finance are the main topics in this nine-minute roundup on the economy from Fritz Meyer. The Covid recession is ending now and he expects the LEI will fully recover to pre-Covid level in 12 months, even after accounting for the recent virus hot spots across parts of the Sunbelt. PEG ratios of the big tech stocks are not outlandish, though the S&P 500 is priced at the high end of the its historical range. PEs, viewed in the context of the .5% PCED level, are nowhere near bubble level, 10-year bond yields a tenth of where they were in the tech stock bubble.

Current Financial Economic Conditions; Q&A w/ Fritz Meyer
(July 22, 2020, 930 p.m. EST)  In this 35-minute commentary on current economic fundamentals, Friitz Meyer answers questions from practitioners. 

A4A continuing education classes have received rave reviews from financial professionals for years because of the incisive analysis of our sources. Fritz Meyer is an independent economist and he's been sharing his analysis monthly for nearly a decade on A4A. Frotz's CE classes on current economic conditions average 9.6 rating from attehdees for many years. 

(July 13, 2020)  Roth Conversions Amid Covid
This week's client video was not about the financial or economic news. Superceding markets and economic news was this important update for clients, subject toi FINRA review, about a tax strategy created by the constellation of factors amid the Covid epidemic.  

(July 3, 2020)  Economic Fundamentals Recovering As Stocks Surged For the Week
Charfs on May manufacturing PMI, new-job creation, unemployment and total employment form a snapshot of what's really happening in the economy.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) for the short market week ended  Thursday at 3,130.01, gaining 3.94% from last week and up 33.26% from the March 23rd Covid bear-market low.

Class Description:

The latest economic data has been registering an impressive recovery from the Covid-19 low. July’s job gains and the unemployment rate were both better than expected. The new manufacturing purchasing managers' data came in stronger than expected.

At this one-credit class, independent economist Fritz Meyer updates the GDP and earnings forecasts and relates both to the market’s current valuation.

With the price of gold soaring +29% YTD compared to the S&P 500’s +3%, Fritz also discusses what’s behind the sharp move and puts gold’s recent returns into historic context.